Tanzania’s
population growth is among the highest in the East and central African
region and the world and could worsen food security which is already
severe, a new book, published this week by the International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) says.
Released
on Monday by three research organizations, the book says that arable
areas in the region are under severe pressure to increase their
productivity to feed a rapidly increasing human population.
It however predicts that climate change could exacerbate the situation.
The
book is the result of collaboration among IFPRI, the CGIAR Research
Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the
Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and
Central Africa (ASARECA), and scientists from each of the countries
studied.
“Adaptation
is essential for sustained economic growth in East Africa. This is the
challenge facing policy makers, who must plan for the future without
available information and analysis,” it reads in part.
East
African Agriculture and Climate Change examines the food security
threats facing 11 of the countries that make up East and Central
Africa—Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda—and
explores how climate change will increase the requirements for achieving
sustainable food security throughout the region.
According
to IFPRI, agriculture drives these countries’ economies and accounts
for 43 per cent of their annual gross domestic product.
Using
sophisticated modelling and available data to develop future scenarios
and explore a range of climate change consequences for agriculture, food
security, and resource management, the book offers recommendations to
national governments and regional agencies.
Without
adaptation, the book reports, climate change will have negative effects
on wheat, soybean, sorghum, and irrigated rice yields.
Yield
declines for each crop are different, but they range between five and
20 per cent, with irrigated rice being the crop most negatively
impacted.
Rain-fed
maize and rainfed rice yields might increase slightly because of
climate change, generally because of projected higher rainfall in some
areas.